How to know in three numbers whether off-market is right

The answer, straight away

The choice between a public and a confidential sale comes down to one question: how many possible buyers genuinely exist for this property.

If there are many and you do not know them, public exposure serves you. If there are few and they are identifiable, exposure adds noise and wears the property out in front of an audience that was never going to buy.

Everything else, discretion included, comes after that question.

First number: how many comparable sales have completed

In your area, above that figure, over the last two or three years. Completed, not listed.

Three a year means a market where buyers can be counted. Thirty does not.

Second number: where those buyers came from

Local, from the nearest large city, foreign. It changes entirely where it makes sense to look.

A market where ninety per cent of buyers come from outside the region is not served with a sign in the window.

Third number: how many matching requirements the agent has today

Not how many they have had. How many they have now, with a budget and an area that fit.

If the first number is low and the third is not zero, a confidential sale makes sense. If the third is zero, whichever road you choose depends on how good the agent is at searching, not on how discreet they are.

What you gain and what you lose

With public exposure you gain reach, the chance that two buyers compete, and an immediate signal on price. You lose discretion, and if it does not sell quickly the history stays visible.

With a confidential sale you gain control, you avoid pointless viewings, and the property is not consumed. You lose reach, and with it some of the competition between buyers.

The third road, which almost nobody offers

In sequence. Confidential first, for a period decided in advance, to the buyers who already exist. If nothing happens by that date, you publish.

The reverse does not work: a property that has been published does not go back.

When the answer is almost always public

Mid-market in an area with plenty of transactions. No need for discretion. A need to sell quickly. A property that compares well with similar ones, where the price reads itself.

When the answer is almost always confidential

A recognisable property in a small place. A high figure with few possible buyers. A succession, a separation, a business being sold: situations you do not want made public. A property that has already been online without selling.

The question to ask the agent

One: how many people do you reach with the road you are proposing, and who are they.

Somebody proposing a confidential sale who cannot answer is not proposing a strategy.